Tucker Carlson. Image: YouTube screenshot.
Aug. 30th, 2023.
A reader sent me this video [1] of a new Tucker Carlson interview.
Tucker says: “There will be a hot war between the US and Russia in the next year.”
He’ll even bet his house on it, he says.
Our good reader asked me to comment. I’d be happy to. Thank you for asking.
The relevant part starts around 38 min. and lasts a couple of minutes.
Tucker says, “lying is always unsustainable. You’re always found out in the end.”
Fair enough. We shall see if we find some lies.
Side note: It’s important to remember that Tucker can trust that his viewers don’t know anything about the war. He can say whatever he wants. Facts don’t matter, because he’s spinning a narrative.
I want to make three points:
1. “The US wants a hot war with Russia”
“There will be a hot war between the US and Russia… Of course. They want it anyway.”
No, Tucker… They don’t want a hot war with Russia.
a) The US and Western media spent 4 months leading up to the war warning that Russia will invade. To expose Russia’s attack on Ukraine before it happened, in order to discourage it.
If the US wanted an excuse to go to war, surely they would have kept the secret… not try to discourage the invasion. Were they trying to sabotage their own pretext for war?
b) Even after Russia invaded, the US didn’t send any significant aid to Ukraine for months. They waited a long time. The US thought Ukraine would fold in short time, so they didn’t send weapons at first. They were hardly eager to get involved.
c) Right before the invasion, Biden basically gave Russia a war guarantee [2]. “If you invade, we won’t step in”, was the message. Biden made clear the US would not send troops even to rescue American citizens.
The US does not want a hot war with Russia. More likely, the US will just stop sending military aid to Ukraine at some point… and that will be the end of their involvement. (Of course, that’s just speculation.)
2. This one takes a bit of chutzpah
Tucker says that the US will fake an incident to get a pretext for war.
“I think we could ‘Tonkin Gulf’ our way into it. All of a sudden missiles land in Poland – the Russians did it – our NATO ally has been attacked, we’re going to war! I can see that happen very easily.”
Really? Have you forgotten this happened already, about a year ago?
(Tucker can trust the rubes watching him have forgotten all about it, so he can keep pushing his narrative.)
Have you forgotten that the immediate response from the Biden gov was to downplay the event, while the media was hyping it?
If the US wanted a pretext for war, they had it. But they didn’t take it. They actively pushed it away.
Because the US does not want war with Russia.
3. “The US can ‘force a peace’ whenever it wants”
“The US can force a peace in Ukraine tonight”, Tucker says.
I know Tucker has this navel-gazing view where the US is the center of the universe, “the greatest country in the world” for whatever reason, and at the same time the Great Satan that’s bullying poor, innocent Russia.
(It doesn’t make sense and it doesn’t have to. It’s just TV, after all.)
I’m sorry to hurt your pride in Murrica, World Police, Tucker – but the US isn’t Superman. The US can’t just snap its fingers and make other countries dance. Especially not Russia.
Russia started the war. Russia is continuing the war. And Russia decides when the war is over. The US will not force any peace on Russia.
Right now, no peace is likely, because the parties are too far from each other.
Ukraine wants to take back Crimea and Russia wants to take Kiev (and all of Ukraine). Those are incompatible goals – nowhere near a starting point for negotiations. Allowing Russia to occupy all of Ukraine is not just unacceptable for Ukraine, but for all of Europe, for obvious reasons. That is not a realistic option.
Putin clearly and repeatedly says [3] that he does not consider Ukraine a legitimate state.
As former Russian President Medvedev (currently Deputy Chair of the Russian Security Council) has made clear [4], Russia considers all of Ukraine disputed territory.
As Alexander Dugin has explained [5], Russia wants to get rid of Ukraine completely through this war. They’re not looking to settle any time soon.
Former Russian President Medvedev, current Deputy Chair of the Russian Security Council, posting on his official state Twitter account. Screenshot.
LAW AND ORDER – LAW AND ORDER
Tucker’s “force peace now” rant is as stupid as Trump’s tweets about LAW AND ORDER.
Yes, you can say it, but it’s an empty statement. For there to be peace, there would have to be terms. (Not in Tucker’s Q-anon world, but in reality.)
And what are the terms, Tucker? Nothing? America should just magically end the war? Sounds like a good solution.
They say truth is the first casualty of war. Obviously so. The commentary has been laughable from day 1.
It’s irresponsible to keep hyping nuclear war, but, of course, drama sells.
Tucker has turned into a slightly more mainstream version of Alex Jones. Or maybe that’s what he always was.
Fróði
P.S.
This was originally published as a blog post for members [6].